In the Multitude of Counselors…

Do you have any decisions to make today?  The answer is, of course, “yes.”  Many of these decisions will be of little consequence (“Which shirt should I wear to work today?”) but a few may carry considerable weight (“Should I hire/fire ‘so and so?’”)

How do you go about making these more serious decisions?  That’s the subject of this Weekly Insight.  James Surowiecki wrote a book entitled, The Wisdom of Crowds.  In this book the author  “explores a deceptively simple idea that has profound implications: large groups of people are smarter than an elite few, no matter how brilliant—better at solving problems, fostering innovation, coming to wise decisions, even predicting the future.”

Not all crowds (groups) are wise. Consider, for example, mobs or crazed investors in a stock market bubble.  According to Surowiecki, there are four key criteria that separate wise crowds from irrational ones:

There are four key qualities that make a crowd smart. It needs to be diverse, so that people are bringing different pieces of information to the table. It needs to be decentralized, so that no one at the top is dictating the crowd's answer. It needs a way of summarizing people's opinions into one collective verdict. And the people in the crowd need to be independent, so that they pay attention mostly to their own information, and do not worry about what everyone around them thinks.

The author makes a point that he is not talking about building “consensus.”

The wisdom of crowds isn't about consensus. It really emerges from disagreement and even conflict. It's what you might call the average opinion of the group, but it's not an opinion that every one in the group can agree on. So that means you can't find collective wisdom via compromise.

I think the most important lesson is not to rely on the wisdom of one or two experts or leaders when making difficult decisions. That doesn't mean that expertise is irrelevant, or that we don't need smart people. It just means that together all of us know more than any one of us does.

The Bible encourages us to seek the advice of wise counselors. Proverbs 11:14 states, “Where there is no counsel, the people fall; but in the multitude of counselors there is safety.” The word translated “counsel” is a Hebrew nautical term used for steering a ship. The wisdom of godly advisors can help steer us in the right direction.  The more people who are consulted about any given thing, the more apt they are to consider every possibility. 

The admonition to the individual is to obtain a wide range of input, opinions and facts before coming to a conclusion and making a final decision. Obtain a multitude of published documents, books and findings. Never rely on the advice of any one person to make a major decision.   

In fact the Hebrew word translated “multitude” in Proverbs 11:14 means “abundance (in any respect).”  To me, the word diverse comes to mind.  Seek out diverse opinions, perhaps even contrary opinions.  Allow constructive conflict to energize the backdrop for the decision.  

Reality Check

Based on 30+ years working in corporate America and several years of management consulting experience, I will make this claim: there is much more “group think” going on in most organizations that we would like to admit.  Many business owners and CEOs have selective hearing when it comes to gathering information to inform a major decision.  Many business owners and CEOs surround themselves with people who are just like them.  Their executive team tends to act the same way and…think the same way.  Seldom are decision-making groups formed that range across hierarchies.  Those with contrary opinions are labeled as “trouble makers” or just ignored.  The CEO feels the pressure of making every decision alone based on facts, opinions, attitudes, and gut feelings from inside his or her own psyche.  This is not good. 

As yourself these questions as you approach your next major corporate decision: 

·        Are you gathering diverse opinions?

·        Are you surrounded by independent thinkers who will “say what they think?”

·        Do you believe in the “wisdom of the crowds?”  How are you applying “in the multitude of counselors there is safety?” 

Certainly CEOs must have courage to make tough decisions.  However, there is great wisdom in seeking the counsel of a diverse group prior to making those tough decisions. 

Keith 

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